英文标题：
《The Testing Multiplier: Fear vs Containment》
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作者：
Francesco Furno
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最新提交年份：
2020
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英文摘要：
I study the economic effects of testing during the outbreak of a novel disease. I propose a model where testing permits isolation of the infected and provides agents with information about the prevalence and lethality of the disease. Additional testing reduces the perceived lethality of the disease, but might increase the perceived risk of infection. As a result, more testing could increase the perceived risk of dying from the disease - i.e. \"stoke fear\" - and cause a fall in economic activity, despite improving health outcomes. Two main insights emerge. First, increased testing is beneficial to the economy and pays for itself if performed at a sufficiently large scale, but not necessarily otherwise. Second, heterogeneous risk perceptions across age-groups can have important aggregate consequences. For a SARS-CoV-2 calibration of the model, heterogeneous risk perceptions across young and old individuals mitigate GDP losses by 50% and reduce the death toll by 30% relative to a scenario in which all individuals have the same perceptions of risk.
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中文摘要：
我研究了一种新疾病暴发期间检测的经济影响。我提出了一个模型，在该模型中，检测允许隔离受感染者，并为代理人提供有关该疾病流行率和致死率的信息。额外的检测会降低人们对该疾病的致命性的感知，但可能会增加人们对感染风险的感知。因此，尽管健康状况有所改善，但更多的检测可能会增加人们对死于该疾病的感知风险——即“斯托克恐惧”——并导致经济活动下降。出现了两个主要观点。首先，如果测试规模足够大，增加测试对经济是有益的，也会为自己带来回报，但不一定是这样。第二，不同年龄段的不同风险认知可能会产生重要的总体后果。在模型的SARS-CoV-2校准中，年轻人和老年人对风险的不同看法将GDP损失减少50%，死亡人数减少30%，而所有人对风险的看法相同。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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