英文标题：
《Optimal switch from a fossil-fueled to an electric vehicle》
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作者：
Paolo Falbo, Giorgio Ferrari, Giorgio Rizzini, Maren Diane Schmeck
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最新提交年份：
2020
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英文摘要：
In this paper we propose and solve a real options model for the optimal adoption of an electric vehicle. A policymaker promotes the abeyance of fossil-fueled vehicles through an incentive, and the representative fossil-fueled vehicle\'s owner decides the time at which buying an electric vehicle, while minimizing a certain expected cost. This involves a combination of various types of costs: the stochastic opportunity cost of driving one unit distance with a traditional fossil-fueled vehicle instead of an electric one, the cost associated to traffic bans, and the net purchase cost. After determining the optimal switching time and the minimal cost function for a general diffusive opportunity cost, we specialize to the case of a mean-reverting process. In such a setting, we provide a model calibration on real data from Italy, and we study the dependency of the optimal switching time with respect to the model\'s parameters. Moreover, we study the effect of traffic bans and incentive on the expected optimal switching time. We observe that incentive and traffic bans on fossil-fueled transport can be used as effective tools in the hand of the policymaker to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles, and hence to reduce air pollution.
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中文摘要：
在本文中，我们提出并解决了电动汽车最优采用的实物期权模型。政策制定者通过激励措施推动化石燃料汽车的暂停，代表化石燃料汽车的车主决定购买电动汽车的时间，同时最小化一定的预期成本。这涉及各种类型的成本组合：使用传统化石燃料汽车而非电动汽车行驶一单位距离的随机机会成本、交通禁令相关成本以及净购买成本。在确定一般扩散机会成本的最优切换时间和最小成本函数后，我们专门研究均值回复过程的情况。在这样的设置下，我们对来自意大利的真实数据进行了模型校准，并研究了最佳切换时间与模型参数的相关性。此外，我们还研究了交通禁令和激励对期望最优切换时间的影响。我们观察到，化石燃料运输的激励和交通禁令可以作为政策制定者手中的有效工具，鼓励采用电动汽车，从而减少空气污染。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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