英文标题：
《Extrapolating the term structure of interest rates with parameter
uncertainty》
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作者：
Anne Balter, Antoon Pelsser, Peter Schotman
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最新提交年份：
2013
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英文摘要：
Pricing extremely long-dated liabilities market consistently deals with the decline in liquidity of financial instruments on long maturities. The aim is to quantify the uncertainty of rates up to maturities of a century. We assume that the interest rates follow the affine mean-reverting Vasicek model. We model parameter uncertainty by Bayesian distributions over the parameters. The cross-sectional and time series parameters are obtained via the restricted bivariate VAR(1) model. The empirical example shows extremely low confidence in long term extrapolations due to the accumulated effect of the mean-reversion`s behaviour close to the unit root.
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中文摘要：
极长期负债的定价市场一直在应对长期金融工具流动性的下降。其目的是量化一个世纪内到期利率的不确定性。我们假设利率遵循仿射均值回复Vasicek模型。我们通过参数的贝叶斯分布来建模参数的不确定性。横截面和时间序列参数通过受限二元VAR（1）模型获得。经验例子表明，由于均值回归行为接近单位根的累积效应，长期外推的置信度极低。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Computational Finance 计算金融学
分类描述：Computational methods, including Monte Carlo, PDE, lattice and other numerical methods with applications to financial modeling
计算方法，包括蒙特卡罗，偏微分方程，格子和其他数值方法，并应用于金融建模
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Pricing of Securities 证券定价
分类描述：Valuation and hedging of financial securities, their derivatives, and structured products
金融证券及其衍生产品和结构化产品的估值和套期保值
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Risk Management 风险管理
分类描述：Measurement and management of financial risks in trading, banking, insurance, corporate and other applications
衡量和管理贸易、银行、保险、企业和其他应用中的金融风险
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Statistical Finance 统计金融
分类描述：Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
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