英文标题：
《Minsky Financial Instability, Interscale Feedback, Percolation and
Marshall-Walras Disequilibrium》
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作者：
Sorin Solomon, Natasa Golo (Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew
University)
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最新提交年份：
2014
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英文摘要：
We study analytically and numerically Minsky instability as a combination of top-down, bottom-up and peer-to-peer positive feedback loops. The peer-to-peer interactions are represented by the links of a network formed by the connections between firms, contagion leading to avalanches and percolation phase transitions propagating across these links. The global parameter in the top-bottom, bottom-up feedback loop is the interest rate. Before the Minsky moment, in the Minsky Loans Accelerator stage, the relevant bottom parameter representing the individual firms micro-states is the quantity of loans. After the Minsky moment, in the Minsky Crisis Accelerator stage, the relevant bottom parameters are the number of ponzi units / quantity of failures, defaults. We represent the top-bottom, bottom-up interactions on a plot similar to the Marshal-Walras diagram for quantity-price market equilibrium (where the interest rate is the analog of the price). The Minsky instability is then simply emerging as a consequence of the fixed point (the intersection of the supply and demand curves) being unstable (repulsive). In the presence of network effects, one obtains more than one fixed point and a few dynamic regimes (phases). We describe them and their implications for understanding, predicting and steering economic instability.
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中文摘要：
我们从分析和数值上研究了自上而下、自下而上和点对点正反馈回路的组合明斯基不稳定性。点对点的相互作用是由企业之间的联系、导致雪崩的传染和在这些联系上传播的渗透相变所形成的网络的联系来表示的。自上而下、自下而上反馈回路中的全局参数是利率。在明斯基时刻之前，在明斯基贷款加速器阶段，代表单个企业微观状态的相关底部参数是贷款数量。在明斯基时刻之后，在明斯基危机加速器阶段，相关的底部参数是庞氏单位数/故障数量、默认值。我们在一个类似马歇尔·瓦尔拉斯（Marshal Walras）数量价格市场均衡图（利率与价格类似）的图上表示自上而下、自下而上的相互作用。然后，明斯基不稳定性仅仅是由于固定点（供需曲线的交点）不稳定（排斥）而出现的。在存在网络效应的情况下，可以获得多个固定点和几个动态区域（相位）。我们描述了它们及其对理解、预测和指导经济不稳定的影响。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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