英文标题：
《The Naive Extrapolation Hypothesis and the Rosy-Gloomy Forecasts》
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作者：
Vasileios Barmpoutis
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最新提交年份：
2014
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英文摘要：
I study the behavior and the performance of the long-term forecasts issued by financial analysts with respect to the Extrapolation Hypothesis. That hypothesis states that investors, extrapolating from the firms\' recent performances, are too optimistic about growth and large firms and too pessimistic about value and small firms. I find that the forecasting errors are higher for the growth firms and large firms, thus providing support for the Extrapolation Hypothesis. However, in addition to the rosy picture of the growth and large firms, the forecasts of the value and small firms are not so gloomy in many cases. My analysis also reveals that expectations move together for all categories of book-to-market and all sizes of firms. I proceed by investigating some common factors that may influence analysts\' long-term forecasts, including co-movement and excessive optimism. I find that macro factors beyond a firm\'s recent performance may influence the formation of expectations.
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中文摘要：
我研究了金融分析师根据外推假设发布的长期预测的行为和表现。该假说指出，从公司最近的表现推断，投资者对增长和大公司过于乐观，而对价值和小公司过于悲观。我发现成长型企业和大型企业的预测误差更高，从而为外推假设提供了支持。然而，除了增长和大公司的美好前景之外，对价值和小公司的预测在许多情况下也不那么悲观。我的分析还显示，对于所有类别的图书上市公司和所有规模的公司，预期都会一起变化。接下来，我调查了一些可能影响分析师长期预测的常见因素，包括共同运动和过度乐观。我发现，公司近期业绩以外的宏观因素可能会影响预期的形成。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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