英文标题：
《On possible origins of trends in financial market price changes》
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作者：
Ryo Murakami, Tomomichi Nakamura, Shin Kimura, Masashi Manabe, and
Toshihiro Tanizawa
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最新提交年份：
2014
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英文摘要：
We investigate possible origins of trends using a deterministic threshold model, where we refer to long-term variabilities of price changes (price movements) in financial markets as trends. From the investigation we find two phenomena. One is that the trend of monotonic increase and decrease can be generated by dealers\' minuscule change in mood, which corresponds to the possible fundamentals. The other is that the emergence of trends is all but inevitable in the realistic situation because of the fact that dealers cannot always obtain accurate information about deals, even if there is no influence from fundamentals and technical analyses.
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中文摘要：
我们使用确定性阈值模型研究趋势的可能来源，在该模型中，我们将金融市场价格变化（价格变动）的长期变量称为趋势。从调查中我们发现了两种现象。一种是，单调的增加和减少趋势可以由经销商情绪的微小变化产生，这与可能的基本面相对应。另一个原因是，在现实情况下，趋势的出现几乎是不可避免的，因为经销商无法始终获得交易的准确信息，即使基本面和技术分析没有影响。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Trading and Market Microstructure 交易与市场微观结构
分类描述：Market microstructure, liquidity, exchange and auction design, automated trading, agent-based modeling and market-making
市场微观结构，流动性，交易和拍卖设计，自动化交易，基于代理的建模和做市
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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