英文标题：
《Forecasting future oil production in Norway and the UK: a general
improved methodology》
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作者：
Lucas Fievet, Zal\\`an Forr\\`o, Peter Cauwels, Didier Sornette
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最新提交年份：
2014
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英文摘要：
We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production, as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 188 +/- 10 million barrels for Norway and 98 +/- 10 million barrels for the UK, which are respectively 45% and 66% above the predictions using the standard methodology.
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中文摘要：
我们提出了一种新的蒙特卡罗方法，用于预测挪威和英国的原油产量，该方法基于两步过程，（i）单个油田当前/过去表现的非线性外推，以及（ii）未来油田发现频率的随机模型。与倾向于低估剩余油储量的标准方法相比，我们的方法能更好地描述未来的石油产量，2008年开始的回测验证了这一点。具体而言，我们预测到2030年，挪威的剩余可开采储量为188+/-1000万桶，英国为98+/-1000万桶，分别比使用标准方法的预测高出45%和66%。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability 数据分析、统计与概率
分类描述：Methods, software and hardware for physics data analysis: data processing and storage; measurement methodology; statistical and mathematical aspects such as parametrization and uncertainties.
物理数据分析的方法、软硬件：数据处理与存储；测量方法；统计和数学方面，如参数化和不确定性。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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