英文标题：
《How Market Structure Drives Commodity Prices》
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作者：
Bin Li (1), K. Y. Michael Wong (1), Amos H. M. Chan (1), Tsz Yan So
(1), Hermanni Heimonen (1), Junyi Wei (1), David Saad (2) ((1) Department of
Physics, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay,
Hong Kong (2) The Nonlinearity and Complexity Research Group, Aston
University, Birmingham B4 7ET, United Kingdom)
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最新提交年份：
2018
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英文摘要：
We introduce an agent-based model, in which agents set their prices to maximize profit. At steady state the market self-organizes into three groups: excess producers, consumers and balanced agents, with prices determined by their own resource level and a couple of macroscopic parameters that emerge naturally from the analysis, akin to mean-field parameters in statistical mechanics. When resources are scarce prices rise sharply below a turning point that marks the disappearance of excess producers. To compare the model with real empirical data, we study the relations between commodity prices and stock-to-use ratios of a range of commodities such as agricultural products and metals. By introducing an elasticity parameter to mitigate noise and long-term changes in commodities data, we confirm the trend of rising prices, provide evidence for turning points, and indicate yield points for less essential commodities.
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中文摘要：
我们引入了一个基于代理的模型，在该模型中，代理设定其价格以实现利润最大化。在稳定状态下，市场自组织为三组：过剩生产者、消费者和平衡代理人，价格由他们自己的资源水平和分析中自然产生的两个宏观参数决定，类似于统计力学中的平均场参数。当资源稀缺时，价格急剧上涨，低于标志着过剩生产者消失的转折点。为了将模型与实际经验数据进行比较，我们研究了农产品和金属等一系列商品的商品价格与库存使用率之间的关系。通过引入弹性参数来缓解商品数据中的噪音和长期变化，我们确认了价格上涨的趋势，为转折点提供了证据，并指出了不那么重要的商品的收益点。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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