英文标题：
《Water Stress on U.S. Power Production at Decadal Time Horizons》
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作者：
Poulomi Ganguli, Devashish Kumar, and Auroop R. Ganguly
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最新提交年份：
2015
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英文摘要：
Thermoelectric power production at risk, owing to current and projected water scarcity and rising stream temperatures, is assessed for the contiguous United States at decadal scales. Regional water scarcity is driven by climate variability and change, as well as by multi-sector water demand. While a planning horizon of zero to about thirty years is occasionally prescribed by stakeholders, the challenges to risk assessment at these scales include the difficulty in delineating decadal climate trends from intrinsic natural or multiple model variability. Current generation global climate or earth system models are not credible at the spatial resolutions of power plants, especially for surface water quantity and stream temperatures, which further exacerbates the assessment challenge. Population changes, which are difficult to project, cannot serve as adequate proxies for changes in the water demand across sectors. The hypothesis that robust assessments of power production at risk are possible, despite the uncertainties, has been examined as a proof of concept. An approach is presented for delineating water scarcity and temperature from climate models, observations and population storylines, as well as for assessing power production at risk by examining geospatial correlations of power plant locations within regions where the usable water supply for energy production happens to be scarcer and warmer. Our analyses showed that in the near term, more than 200 counties are likely to be exposed to water scarcity in the next three decades. Further, we noticed that stream gauges in more than five counties in the 2030s and ten counties in the 2040s showed a significant increase in water temperature, which exceeded the power plant effluent temperature threshold set by the EPA. Power plants in South Carolina, Louisiana, and Texas are likely to be vulnerable owing to climate-driven water stresses.
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中文摘要：
由于当前和预计的水资源短缺和河流温度上升，对毗邻美国的热电生产进行了十年期评估。区域水资源短缺是由气候变化和变化以及多部门用水需求驱动的。虽然利益相关者偶尔会规定0至30年左右的规划期限，但这些规模的风险评估面临的挑战包括，难以从固有的自然或多模型可变性中描绘十年气候趋势。当前一代全球气候或地球系统模型在发电厂的空间分辨率方面不可靠，尤其是在地表水量和河流温度方面，这进一步加剧了评估挑战。人口变化很难预测，不能作为各部门用水需求变化的充分替代指标。尽管存在不确定性，但仍有可能对处于风险中的发电量进行稳健评估，这一假设已被检验为概念证明。本文提出了一种从气候模型、观测和人口故事情节中描述水资源短缺和温度的方法，以及通过检查发电厂位置的地理空间相关性来评估处于风险中的发电量的方法，该发电厂位于能源生产的可用水供应更为稀缺和温暖的区域内。我们的分析表明，在短期内，200多个县可能在未来30年面临缺水问题。此外，我们注意到，在20世纪30年代，超过五个县和20世纪40年代的十个县的水位计显示水温显著升高，超过了EPA设定的电厂出水温度阈值。由于气候导致的水压力，南卡罗来纳州、路易斯安那州和得克萨斯州的发电厂可能很脆弱。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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