英文标题：
《Fighting Uncertainty with Uncertainty: A Baby Step》
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作者：
Ravi Kashyap
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最新提交年份：
2017
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英文摘要：
We can overcome uncertainty with uncertainty. Using randomness in our choices and in what we control, and hence in the decision making process, could potentially offset the uncertainty inherent in the environment and yield better outcomes. The example we develop in greater detail is the news-vendor inventory management problem with demand uncertainty. We briefly discuss areas, where such an approach might be helpful, with the common prescription, \"Don\'t Simply Optimize, Also Randomize; perhaps best described by the term - Randoptimization\". 1. News-vendor Inventory Management 2. School Admissions 3. Journal Submissions 4. Job Candidate Selection 5. Stock Picking 6. Monetary Policy This methodology is suitable for the social sciences since the primary source of uncertainty are the members of the system themselves and presently, no methods are known to fully determine the outcomes in such an environment, which perhaps would require being able to read the minds of everyone involved and to anticipate their actions continuously. Admittedly, we are not qualified to recommend whether such an approach is conducive for the natural sciences, unless perhaps, bounds can be established on the levels of uncertainty in a system and it is shown conclusively that a better understanding of the system and hence improved decision making will not alter the outcomes.
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中文摘要：
我们可以用不确定性来克服不确定性。在我们的选择和控制中使用随机性，从而在决策过程中使用随机性，可能会抵消环境中固有的不确定性，并产生更好的结果。我们更详细的例子是需求不确定性的新闻供应商库存管理问题。我们简要地讨论了这样一种方法可能有用的领域，以及常见的处方，“不要简单地优化，也要随机化；也许最好用术语-Randoptimization来描述”。1.新闻供应商库存管理2。学校招生3。期刊投稿4。求职者选择5。选股6。货币政策这种方法适用于社会科学，因为不确定性的主要来源是系统成员本身，目前还不知道有什么方法可以完全确定这种环境下的结果，这可能需要能够读懂所有相关人员的想法，并持续预测他们的行动。诚然，我们没有资格建议这种方法是否有助于自然科学，除非也许可以在系统中的不确定性水平上建立界限，并最终证明更好地理解系统并因此改进决策不会改变结果。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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