英文标题：
《Regional Oil Extraction and Consumption: A simple production model for
the next 35 years Part I》
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作者：
Michael Dittmar (ETH Zurich, Institute of Particle Physics)
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最新提交年份：
2016
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英文摘要：
The growing conflicts in and about oil exporting regions and speculations about volatile oil prices during the last decade have renewed the public interest in predictions for the near future oil production and consumption. Unfortunately, studies from only 10 years ago, which tried to forecast the oil production during the next 20-30 years, failed to make accurate predictions for today\'s global oil production and consumption. Forecasts using economic growth scenarios, overestimated the actual oil production, while models which tried to estimate the maximum future oil production/year, using the official country oil reserve data, predicted a too low production. In this paper, a new approach to model the maximal future regional and thus global oil production (part I) and consumption (part II) during the next decades is proposed. Our analysis of the regional oil production data during past decades shows that, in contrast to periods when production was growing and growth rates varied greatly from one country to another, remarkable similarities are found during the plateau and decline periods of different countries. Following this model, the particular production phase of each major oil producing country and region is determined essentially only from the recent past oil production data. Using these data, the model is then used to predict the production from all major oil producing countries, regions and continents up to the year 2050. The limited regional and global potential to compensate this decline with unconventional oil and oil-equivalents is also presented.
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中文摘要：
在过去十年中，石油出口地区内部和有关石油出口地区的冲突不断加剧，人们对石油价格波动的猜测再次激发了公众对近期石油生产和消费预测的兴趣。不幸的是，仅仅10年前的研究试图预测未来20-30年的石油产量，却未能对当今的全球石油生产和消费做出准确预测。使用经济增长情景的预测高估了实际石油产量，而试图使用官方国家石油储备数据估计未来最高石油产量/年的模型预测产量过低。在本文中，提出了一种新的方法来模拟未来几十年最大的区域和全球石油产量（第一部分）和消费（第二部分）。我们对过去几十年区域石油产量数据的分析表明，与产量增长和增长率因国家而异的时期相比，不同国家的高原期和衰退期存在显著的相似性。根据该模型，每个主要产油国和地区的特定生产阶段基本上仅根据最近的过去石油生产数据确定。利用这些数据，该模型可用于预测截至2050年所有主要产油国、地区和大陆的产量。还介绍了用非常规石油和石油等价物弥补这一下降的有限区域和全球潜力。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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