英文标题：
《Convergence of Economic Growth and the Great Recession as Seen From a
Celestial Observatory》
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作者：
Eamon Duede and Victor Zhorin
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最新提交年份：
2016
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英文摘要：
Macroeconomic theories of growth and wealth distribution have an outsized influence on national and international social and economic policies. Yet, due to a relative lack of reliable, system wide data, many such theories remain, at best, unvalidated and, at worst, misleading. In this paper, we introduce a novel economic observatory and framework enabling high resolution comparisons and assessments of the distributional impact of economic development through the remote sensing of planet earth\'s surface. Striking visual and empirical validation is observed for a broad, global macroeconomic sigma-convergence in the period immediately following the end of the Cold War. What is more, we observe strong empirical evidence that the mechanisms driving sigma-convergence failed immediately after the financial crisis and the start of the Great Recession. Nevertheless, analysis of both cross-country and cross-state samples indicates that, globally, disproportionately high growth levels and excessively high decay levels have become rarer over time. We also see that urban areas, especially concentrated within short distances of major capital cities were more likely than rural or suburban areas to see relatively high growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Observed changes in growth polarity can be attributed plausibly to post-crisis government intervention and subsidy policies introduced around the world. Overall, the data and techniques we present here make economic evidence for the rise of China, the decline of U.S. manufacturing, the euro crisis, the Arab Spring, and various, recent, Middle East conflicts visually evident for the first time.
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中文摘要：
增长和财富分配的宏观经济理论对国家和国际社会经济政策有着巨大的影响。然而，由于相对缺乏可靠的全系统数据，许多这样的理论充其量也没有得到验证，充其量也有误导性。在本文中，我们介绍了一个新的经济观测站和框架，通过对地球表面的遥感，可以对经济发展的分布影响进行高分辨率的比较和评估。在冷战结束后的一段时间里，全球宏观经济西格玛趋同现象得到了惊人的视觉和实证验证。此外，我们观察到强有力的实证证据表明，在金融危机和大衰退开始后，驱动西格玛趋同的机制立即失败。然而，对跨国和跨州样本的分析表明，随着时间的推移，全球不成比例的高增长水平和过高的衰退水平变得越来越少。我们还看到，在金融危机后，城市地区，尤其是集中在主要首都城市附近的地区，比农村或郊区更有可能出现相对较高的增长。观察到的增长极性变化可以合理地归因于危机后的政府干预和世界各地推出的补贴政策。总的来说，我们在这里展示的数据和技术为中国的崛起、美国制造业的衰落、欧元危机、阿拉伯之春，以及各种近期的中东冲突提供了经济证据，这在第一次明显可见。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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