英文标题：
《The wage transition in developed countries and its implications for
China》
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作者：
Belal Baaquie, Bertrand M. Roehner, Qinghai Wang
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最新提交年份：
2016
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英文摘要：
The expression \"wage transition\" refers to the fact that over the past two or three decades in all developed economies wage increases have levelled off. There has been a widening divergence and decoupling between wages on the one hand and GDP per capita on the other hand. Yet, in China wages and GDP per capita climbed in sync (at least up to now). In the first part of the paper we present comparative statistical evidence which measures the extent of the wage transition effect. In a second part we consider the reasons of this phenomenon, in particular we explain how the transfers of labor from low productivity sectors (such as agriculture) to high productivity sectors (such as manufacturing) are the driver of productivity growth, particularly through their synergetic effects. Although rural flight represents only one of these effects, it is certainly the most visible because of the geographical relocation that it implies; it is also the most well-defined statistically. Moreover, it will be seen that it is a good indicator of the overall productivity and attractivity of the non-agricultural sector. Because this model accounts fairly well for the observed evolution in industrialized countries, we use it to predict the rate of Chinese economic growth in the coming decades. Our forecast for the average annual growth of real wages ranges from 4% to 6% depending on how well China will control the development of its healthcare industry.
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中文摘要：
“工资转型”一词指的是，在过去二三十年里，所有发达经济体的工资增长都趋于平稳。工资与人均GDP之间的差距越来越大，脱钩也越来越严重。然而，在中国，工资和人均GDP同步攀升（至少到目前为止）。在本文的第一部分，我们提供了衡量工资过渡效应程度的比较统计证据。在第二部分中，我们考虑了这种现象的原因，特别是我们解释了劳动力从低生产率部门（如农业）向高生产率部门（如制造业）的转移是如何推动生产率增长的，特别是通过它们的协同效应。尽管乡村飞行只代表了其中一种影响，但由于它意味着地理上的迁移，它肯定是最明显的；在统计学上，它也是定义最明确的。此外，可以看出，这是非农业部门整体生产力和吸引力的良好指标。因为这个模型很好地解释了工业化国家观察到的发展，我们用它来预测未来几十年中国的经济增长率。我们对实际工资年均增长的预测范围为4%到6%，这取决于中国对医疗保健行业发展的控制程度。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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