英文标题：
《Long-run evolution of the global economy - Part 2: Hindcasts of
innovation and growth》
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作者：
Timothy J. Garrett
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最新提交年份：
2016
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英文摘要：
Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches the global economy using purely physical principles rather than explicitly resolved societal dynamics. If this model is initialized with economic data from the 1950s, it yields hindcasts for how fast global economic production and energy consumption grew between 2000 and 2010 with skill scores > 90 % relative to a model of persistence in trends. The model appears to attain high skill partly because there was a strong impulse of discovery of fossil fuel energy reserves in the mid-twentieth century that helped civilization to grow rapidly as a deterministic physical response. Forecasting the coming century may prove more of a challenge because the effect of the energy impulse appears to have nearly run its course. Nonetheless, an understanding of the external forces that drive civilization may help development of constrained futures for the coupled evolution of civilization and climate during the Anthropocene.
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中文摘要：
长期气候预测使用综合评估模型将全球经济与温室气体排放联系起来。本文评估了本研究（Garrett，2014）第1部分中概述的另一种经济框架，该框架使用纯粹的物理原理，而不是明确解决的社会动力学来研究全球经济。如果这个模型是用20世纪50年代的经济数据初始化的，它会对2000年至2010年间全球经济生产和能源消耗的增长速度产生后预测，与趋势持续性模型相比，技能得分>90%。该模型似乎获得了很高的技巧，部分原因是在20世纪中叶，人们强烈地希望发现化石燃料能源储备，这有助于文明作为一种确定性的物理反应迅速发展。预测下一个世纪可能会被证明是一个更大的挑战，因为能源冲动的影响似乎已经接近尾声。尽管如此，了解驱动文明的外部力量可能有助于人类世文明和气候耦合演化的有限未来的发展。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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