英文标题：
《The Social Cost of Carbon with Economic and Climate Risks》
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作者：
Yongyang Cai, Kenneth L. Judd, Thomas S. Lontzek
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最新提交年份：
2015
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英文摘要：
There is great uncertainty about future climate conditions and the appropriate policies for managing interactions between the climate and the economy. We develop a multidimensional computational model to examine how uncertainties and risks in the economic and climate systems affect the social cost of carbon (SCC)---that is, the present value of the marginal damage to economic output caused by carbon emissions. The SCC is substantially increased by economic and climate risks at both current and future times. Furthermore, the SCC is itself a stochastic process with significant variation; for example, the basic elements of risk incorporated into our model cause the SCC in 2100 to be, with significant probability, ten times what it would be without those risks. We have only imprecise information about what parameter values are best for approximating reality. To deal with this parametric uncertainty we perform extensive uncertainty quantification and show that these findings are robust for a wide range of alternative specifications. More generally, this work shows that large-scale computing can enable economists to examine substantially more complex and realistic models for the purposes of policy analysis.
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中文摘要：
未来的气候条件以及管理气候与经济之间相互作用的适当政策存在很大的不确定性。我们开发了一个多维计算模型来研究经济和气候系统中的不确定性和风险如何影响碳的社会成本（SCC）——即碳排放对经济产出造成的边际损害的现值。SCC因当前和未来的经济和气候风险而大幅增加。此外，SCC本身是一个具有显著变化的随机过程；例如，纳入我们模型的基本风险因素导致2100年的SCC很可能是没有这些风险的情况下的十倍。关于什么参数值最适合逼近现实，我们只有不精确的信息。为了处理这种参数不确定性，我们进行了广泛的不确定性量化，并表明这些结果对于广泛的替代规范是可靠的。更广泛地说，这项工作表明，大规模计算可以使经济学家为政策分析的目的研究更为复杂和现实的模型。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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