2008年兰德公司给美国海军的深度战略报告！


This book examines the future of the United States, the People’s Republic
of China, and Iran. Specifically, it reviews how important domestic
trends—such as changes in the economy, demographics, and the
environment—may influence the priorities of these three nations in
the future. This research is the second in a series of strategic studies the
RAND Corporation conducted for the U.S. Navy’s Office of the Chief
of Naval Operations, Assessment Division (N81). The initial research
was conducted in the summer and fall of 2006. Entitled “Evolving
Strategic Trends, Implications for the U.S. Navy,” that first study was
intended for a select Navy audience. It identified likely major global
strategic trends in the next decade and how they might influence Navy
planning. Although the present book focuses primarily on domestic
trends, it also explores how events in the so-called near abroad of
each nation may influence how the three principal nations view their
strategic situation. Based on the insights gained during their research,
the authors provide conclusions and recommendations that will be of
interest not only to the study’s sponsor, the U.S. Navy, but also to a
wider range of policymakers and academics in the United States and
elsewhere.
This research was sponsored by the U.S. Navy’s Office of the
Chief of Naval Operations, Assessment Division (N81), and conducted
within the International Security and Defense Policy Center (ISDP)
of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded
research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary
of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands,
iv Domestic Trends in the United States, China, and Iran
the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies,
and the defense Intelligence Community.
For more information on RAND’s International Security and
Defense Policy Center, contact the Director, James Dobbins. He
can be reached by email at James_Dobbins@rand.org; by phone at
703-413-1100, extension 5134; or by mail at the RAND Corporation,
1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, Virginia 22202-5050. More
information about RAND is available at www.rand.org.