英文标题：
《European Union gas market development》
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作者：
Tobias Baltensperger, Rudolf M. F\\\"uchslin, Pius Kr\\\"utli, and John
Lygeros
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最新提交年份：
2015
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英文摘要：
The recently announced Energy Union by the European Commission is the most recent step in a series of developments aiming at integrating the EU\'s gas markets to increase social welfare (SW) and security of gas supply. Based on a spatial partial equilibrium model, we analyze the changes in consumption, prices, and SW up to 2022 induced by the infrastructure expansions planned for this period. We find that wholesale prices decrease slightly and converge at Western European levels, the potential of suppliers to exert market power decreases significantly, and consumer surplus increases by 15.9% in the EU. Our results allow us to distinguish three categories of projects: (i) New gas sources developed and brought to the EU markets. These projects decrease prices and increase SW in a large number of countries. The only project in this category is the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline; (ii) Existing gas sources made available to additional countries. This leads to an increase of SW in the newly connected countries, and a decrease everywhere else. These projects mainly involve pipeline and regasification terminal capacity enhancements; (iii) Projects with a marginal effect on the (fully functioning) market. Most storage expansion projects fall into this category, plus the recently announced Turkish Stream. Our results indicate that if all proposed infrastructure projects are realized, the EU\'s single market will become a reality in 2019. However, we also find that SW can only be increased significantly for the EU as a whole if new gas sources become accessible. Consequently, we suggest that the EU should emphasize on measures to increase the available volumes, in particular once the integration of the market is completed. At the same time, efficiency gains, albeit decreasing SW, help to improve the situation of consumers and decrease the dependency of the EU as a whole on external suppliers.
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中文摘要：
欧盟委员会最近宣布的能源联盟是一系列旨在整合欧盟天然气市场以提高社会福利（SW）和天然气供应安全的发展中的最新一步。基于空间部分均衡模型，我们分析了截至2022年由这一时期计划的基础设施扩建引起的消费、价格和软件的变化。我们发现，批发价格略有下降，并趋同于西欧水平，供应商发挥市场力量的潜力显著下降，欧盟的消费者剩余增加了15.9%。我们的结果使我们能够区分三类项目：（i）开发并引入欧盟市场的新气源。这些项目在许多国家降低了价格，增加了软件。这类项目中唯一的项目是横贯安纳托利亚的天然气管道；（ii）向其他国家提供的现有气源。这导致新连接国家/地区的软件数量增加，其他地区的软件数量减少。这些项目主要涉及管道和再气化终端容量提升；（iii）对（充分运作的）市场产生边际影响的项目。大多数存储扩展项目都属于这一类，加上最近宣布的土耳其流。我们的结果表明，如果所有拟议的基础设施项目都能实现，欧盟的单一市场将在2019年成为现实。然而，我们还发现，只有在获得新的天然气来源的情况下，整个欧盟的SW才能显著增加。因此，我们建议欧盟应强调采取措施增加可用量，尤其是一旦市场整合完成。与此同时，效率的提高，尽管软件的减少，有助于改善消费者的状况，减少欧盟作为一个整体对外部供应商的依赖。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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