英文标题：
《How fast can one overcome the paradox of the energy transition? A
physico-economic model for the European power grid》
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作者：
Laurent Pagnier and Philippe Jacquod
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最新提交年份：
2018
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英文摘要：
The paradox of the energy transition is that the low marginal costs of new renewable energy sources (RES) drag electricity prices down and discourage investments in flexible productions that are needed to compensate for the lack of dispatchability of the new RES. The energy transition thus discourages the investments that are required for its own harmonious expansion. To investigate how this paradox can be overcome, we argue that, under certain assumptions, future electricity prices are rather accurately modeled from the residual load obtained by subtracting non-flexible productions from the load. Armed with the resulting economic indicator, we investigate future revenues for European power plants with various degree of flexibility. We find that, if neither carbon taxes nor fuel prices change, flexible productions would be financially rewarded better and sooner if the energy transition proceeds faster but at more or less constant total production, i.e. by reducing the production of thermal power plants at the same rate as the RES production increases. Less flexible productions, on the other hand, would see their revenue grow more moderately. Our results indicate that a faster energy transition with a quicker withdrawal of thermal power plants would reward flexible productions faster.
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中文摘要：
能源转型的悖论在于，新可再生能源（RES）的低边际成本拖累了电价，阻碍了对灵活生产的投资，而灵活生产是弥补新可再生能源缺乏可调度性所必需的。因此，能源转型阻碍了其自身和谐扩张所需的投资。为了研究如何克服这一悖论，我们认为，在某些假设下，未来电价是通过从负荷中减去非柔性生产得到的剩余负荷来相当准确地建模的。借助由此产生的经济指标，我们调查了具有不同程度灵活性的欧洲电厂的未来收入。我们发现，如果碳税和燃料价格都没有变化，如果能源转型速度更快，但总产量或多或少保持不变，即以与可再生能源产量增长相同的速度减少火力发电厂的产量，那么灵活的生产将得到更快更好的经济回报。另一方面，灵活性较差的生产将使其收入增长更为适度。我们的结果表明，更快的能源转换和更快的热电厂退出将更快地奖励灵活的生产。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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