英文标题：
《Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the
simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE》
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作者：
J-F Mercure, H. Pollitt, N.R. Edwards, P.B. Holden, U. Chewpreecha, P.
Salas, A. Lam, F. Knobloch and J. Vinuales
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最新提交年份：
2018
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英文摘要：
A high degree of consensus exists in the climate sciences over the role that human interference with the atmosphere is playing in changing the climate. Following the Paris Agreement, a similar consensus exists in the policy community over the urgency of policy solutions to the climate problem. The context for climate policy is thus moving from agenda setting, which has now been mostly established, to impact assessment, in which we identify policy pathways to implement the Paris Agreement. Most integrated assessment models currently used to address the economic and technical feasibility of avoiding climate change are based on engineering perspectives with a normative systems optimisation philosophy, suitable for agenda setting, but unsuitable to assess the socio-economic impacts of a realistic baskets of climate policies. Here, we introduce a fully descriptive, simulation-based integrated assessment model designed specifically to assess policies, formed by the combination of (1) a highly disaggregated macro-econometric simulation of the global economy based on time series regressions (E3ME), (2) a family of bottom-up evolutionary simulations of technology diffusion based on cross-sectional discrete choice models (FTT), and (3) a carbon cycle and atmosphere circulation model of intermediate complexity (GENIE-1). We use this combined model to create a detailed global and sectoral policy map and scenario that sets the economy on a pathway that achieves the goals of the Paris Agreement with >66% probability of not exceeding 2$^\\circ$C of global warming. We propose a blueprint for a new role for integrated assessment models in this upcoming policy assessment context.
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中文摘要：
关于人类对大气的干扰在气候变化中所起的作用，气候科学界存在着高度的共识。《巴黎协定》之后，政策界就气候问题政策解决方案的紧迫性达成了类似的共识。因此，气候政策的背景正在从目前已基本确立的议程制定，转向影响评估，在评估中，我们确定了执行《巴黎协定》的政策途径。目前用于解决避免气候变化的经济和技术可行性的大多数综合评估模型都基于工程观点，具有规范的系统优化理念，适合议程设置，但不适合评估现实的一篮子气候政策的社会经济影响。在这里，我们介绍了一个完全描述性的、基于模拟的综合评估模型，该模型专门用于评估政策，由（1）基于时间序列回归（E3ME）的全球经济高度分解的宏观经济计量模拟组合而成，（2）基于横截面离散选择模型（FTT）的一系列自下而上的技术扩散演化模拟，（3）中等复杂度的碳循环和大气循环模型（GENIE-1）。我们使用这一组合模型创建了详细的全球和部门政策图和情景，使经济走上实现《巴黎协定》目标的道路，全球变暖的概率不超过2$^\\circ$C，超过66%。在即将到来的政策评估背景下，我们为综合评估模型的新角色提出了蓝图。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 大气与海洋物理
分类描述：Atmospheric and oceanic physics and physical chemistry, biogeophysics, and climate science
大气和海洋物理和物理化学，生物地球物理和气候科学
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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