英文标题：
《Changing the Direction of the Economic and Demographic Research》
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作者：
Ron W. Nielsen
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最新提交年份：
2017
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英文摘要：
A simple but useful method of reciprocal values is introduced, explained and illustrated. This method simplifies the analysis of hyperbolic distributions, which are causing serious problems in the demographic and economic research. It allows for a unique identification of hyperbolic distributions and for unravelling components of more complicated trajectories. This method is illustrated by a few examples. They show that fundamental postulates of the demographic and economic research are contradicted by data, even by precisely the same data, which are used in this research. The generally accepted postulates are based on the incorrect understanding of hyperbolic distributions, which characterise the historical growth of population and the historical economic growth. In particular, data used, but never analysed, during the formulation of the Unified Growth Theory show that this theory is based on fundamentally incorrect premises and thus is fundamentally defective. Application of this simple method of analysis points to new directions in the demographic and economic research. It suggests simpler interpretations of the mechanism of growth. The concept or the evidence of the past primitive and difficult living conditions, which might be perhaps described as some kind of stagnation, is not questioned or disputed. It is only demonstrated that trajectories of the past economic growth and of the growth of population were not reflecting any form of stagnation and thus that they were not shaped by these primitive and difficult living conditions. The concept or evidence of an explosion in technology, medicine, education and in the improved living conditions is not questioned or disputed. It is only demonstrated that this possible explosion is not reflected in the trajectories of the economic growth and of the growth of population.
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中文摘要：
介绍、解释并举例说明了一种简单而实用的倒数法。这种方法简化了双曲线分布的分析，这在人口和经济研究中造成了严重的问题。它允许对双曲线分布进行唯一的识别，并可以解开更复杂轨迹的组成部分。通过几个例子说明了这种方法。他们表明，人口和经济研究的基本假设与本研究中使用的数据相矛盾，即使是完全相同的数据。普遍接受的假设是基于对双曲线分布的错误理解，双曲线分布是人口历史增长和经济历史增长的特征。特别是，在统一增长理论的形成过程中使用但从未分析过的数据表明，该理论基于根本不正确的前提，因此存在根本缺陷。这种简单分析方法的应用为人口和经济研究指明了新的方向。它建议对增长机制进行更简单的解释。过去原始和艰苦生活条件的概念或证据，可能被描述为某种停滞，没有受到质疑或争议。只有证明，过去的经济增长和人口增长轨迹没有反映出任何形式的停滞，因此，它们不是由这些原始和艰难的生活条件所决定的。技术、医学、教育和改善生活条件方面发生爆炸的概念或证据没有受到质疑或争议。事实证明，这种可能的爆炸并没有反映在经济增长和人口增长的轨迹上。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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