英文标题：
《Aggregated moving functional median in robust prediction of hierarchical
functional time series - an application to forecasting web portal users
behaviors》
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作者：
Daniel Kosiorowski, Dominik Mielczarek, Jerzy P. Rydlewski
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最新提交年份：
2018
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英文摘要：
In this article, a new nonparametric and robust method of forecasting hierarchical functional time series is presented. The method is compared with Hyndman and Shang\'s method with respect to their unbiasedness, effectiveness, robustness, and computational complexity. Taking into account results of the analytical, simulation and empirical studies, we come to the conclusion that our proposal is superior over the proposal of Hyndman and Shang with respect to some statistical criteria and especially with respect to robustness and computational complexity. An empirical usefulness of our method is presented on example of management of a certain web portal divided into four subservices. An extensive simulation study involving hierarchical systems consisted of FAR(1) processes and Wiener processes has been conducted as well.
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中文摘要：
本文提出了一种新的非参数、鲁棒的层次函数时间序列预测方法。该方法与Hyndman和Shang的方法在无偏性、有效性、鲁棒性和计算复杂性方面进行了比较。考虑到分析、模拟和实证研究的结果，我们得出结论，在某些统计标准方面，尤其是在稳健性和计算复杂性方面，我们的建议优于Hyndman和Shang的建议。以某门户网站分为四个子服务的管理为例，说明了该方法的有效性。还对由FAR（1）过程和维纳过程组成的层次系统进行了广泛的仿真研究。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Statistics 统计学
二级分类：Computation 计算
分类描述：Algorithms, Simulation, Visualization
算法、模拟、可视化
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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一级分类：Statistics 统计学
二级分类：Applications 应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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