英文标题：
《Optimal Inflation Target: Insights from an Agent-Based Model》
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作者：
Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Stanislao Gualdi, Marco Tarzia, Francesco
Zamponi
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最新提交年份：
2018
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英文摘要：
Which level of inflation should Central Banks be targeting? We investigate this issue in the context of a simplified Agent Based Model of the economy. Depending on the value of the parameters that describe the behaviour of agents (in particular inflation anticipations), we find a rich variety of behaviour at the macro-level. Without any active monetary policy, our ABM economy can be in a high inflation/high output state, or in a low inflation/low output state. Hyper-inflation, deflation and \"business cycles\" between coexisting states are also found. We then introduce a Central Bank with a Taylor rule-based inflation target, and study the resulting aggregate variables. Our main result is that too-low inflation targets are in general detrimental to a CB-monitored economy. One symptom is a persistent under-realisation of inflation, perhaps similar to the current macroeconomic situation. Higher inflation targets are found to improve both unemployment and negative interest rate episodes. Our results are compared with the predictions of the standard DSGE model.
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中文摘要：
央行应将通胀目标定在哪一水平？我们在一个简化的基于代理的经济模型的背景下研究这个问题。根据描述代理人行为（尤其是通货膨胀预期）的参数值，我们发现宏观层面的行为种类繁多。如果没有任何积极的货币政策，我们的资产负债管理经济可能处于高通胀/高产出状态，或者处于低通胀/低产出状态。此外，还发现了共存状态之间的高通胀、通货紧缩和“商业周期”。然后，我们引入了一个以泰勒规则为基础的通货膨胀目标的中央银行，并研究了由此产生的总变量。我们的主要结果是，过低的通胀目标通常对CB监管的经济有害。一个症状是通货膨胀的持续认识不足，可能与当前的宏观经济形势类似。研究发现，较高的通胀目标可以改善失业率和负利率。我们的结果与标准DSGE模型的预测进行了比较。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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