英文标题：
《Forecasting the value of battery electric vehicles compared to internal
combustion engine vehicles: the influence of driving range and battery
technology》
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作者：
JongRoul Woo, Christopher L. Magee
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最新提交年份：
2018
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英文摘要：
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are now clearly a promising candidate in addressing the environmental problems associated with conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). However, BEVs, unlike ICEVs, are still not widely accepted in the automobile market but continuing technological change could overcome this barrier. The aim of this study is to assess and forecast whether and when design changes and technological improvements related to major challenges in driving range and battery cost will make the user value of BEVs greater than the user value of ICEVs. Specifically, we estimate the relative user value of BEVs and ICEVs resulting after design modifications to achieve different driving ranges by considering the engineering trade-offs based on a vehicle simulation. Then, we analyze when the relative user value of BEVs is expected to exceed ICEVs as the energy density and cost of batteries improve because of ongoing technological change. Our analysis demonstrates that the relative value of BEVs is lower than that of ICEVs because BEVs have high battery cost and high cost of time spent recharging despite high torque, high fuel efficiency, and low fuel cost. Moreover, we found the relative value differences between BEVs and ICEVs are found to be less in high performance large cars than in low performance compact cars because BEVs can achieve high acceleration performance more easily than ICEVs. In addition, this study predicts that in approximately 2050, high performance large BEVs could have higher relative value than high performance large ICEVs because of technological improvements in batteries; however low performance compact BEVs are still very likely to have significantly lower user value than comparable ICEVs until well beyond 2050.
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中文摘要：
在解决与传统内燃机车（ICEV）相关的环境问题方面，电池电动汽车（BEV）现在显然是一个很有前途的候选者。然而，与ICEV不同，BEV在汽车市场上仍不被广泛接受，但持续的技术变革可以克服这一障碍。本研究的目的是评估和预测与行驶里程和电池成本方面的主要挑战相关的设计变更和技术改进是否以及何时会使BEV的用户价值大于ICEV的用户价值。具体而言，我们通过考虑基于车辆模拟的工程权衡，估计设计修改后实现不同行驶里程的BEV和ICEV的相对用户价值。然后，我们分析了随着持续的技术变革，电池的能量密度和成本提高，BEV的相对用户价值预计何时会超过ICEV。我们的分析表明，BEV的相对价值低于ICEV，因为尽管BEV具有高扭矩、高燃油效率和低燃油成本，但其电池成本和充电时间成本较高。此外，我们发现在高性能大型车中，BEV和ICEV之间的相对值差异小于低性能紧凑型车，因为BEV比ICEV更容易实现高加速性能。此外，该研究预测，由于电池技术的改进，在大约2050年，高性能大型BEV可能比高性能大型ICEV具有更高的相对价值；然而，直到2050年以后，低性能紧凑型BEV的用户价值仍很可能大大低于同类ICEV。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Computer Science 计算机科学
二级分类：Computers and Society 计算机与社会
分类描述：Covers impact of computers on society, computer ethics, information technology and public policy, legal aspects of computing, computers and education. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes K.0, K.2, K.3, K.4, K.5, and K.7.
涵盖计算机对社会的影响、计算机伦理、信息技术和公共政策、计算机的法律方面、计算机和教育。大致包括ACM学科类K.0、K.2、K.3、K.4、K.5和K.7中的材料。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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