英文标题：
《Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of Nuclear Waste Storage》
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作者：
Alexander Budzier, Bent Flyvbjerg, Andi Garavaglia, and Andreas Leed
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最新提交年份：
2019
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英文摘要：
This study provides an independent, outside-in estimate of the cost and schedule risks of nuclear waste storage projects. Based on a reference class of 216 past, comparable projects, risk of cost overrun was found to be 202% or less, with 80% certainty, i.e., 20% risk of an overrun above 202%. Based on a reference class of 200 past, comparable projects, risk of schedule overrun was found to be 104% or less, with 80% certainty, i.e., 20% risk of overrun above 104%. Cost risk and schedule risk are both substantial for nuclear waste storage projects.
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中文摘要：
本研究为核废物贮存项目的成本和进度风险提供了一个独立的、由外而内的估计。根据216个过去可比项目的参考类别，发现成本超支风险为202%或以下，80%的确定性，即超过202%的超支风险为20%。根据200个过去可比项目的参考类别，发现进度超限风险为104%或以下，80%的确定性，即超过104%的风险为20%。对于核废物贮存项目而言，成本风险和进度风险都是巨大的。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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