<P>俺今天从ssrn下载了北大光华金融系本科生杜凯写的一篇关于从方法论角度讨论行为金融和有小市场假说的比较分析文章，暂不说其究竟分析深度如何，仅仅从其阅读文献、思考深度、思考角度、文章组织等，都是一个非常有潜力的学生，令人叹服！</P>
<P>如果说北大在招生上本身就占了优势，那么光华现在的培养方式的确要远远领先于其它院校。</P>
<P>反过来看俺们人大，尽管官方一再评价人大经济学排名第一，但仅仅从这个学生身上，就能看出这种第一多么虚假，多么令人汗颜！可叹俺们那些大领导小领导均不能够认清自己。</P>
<P>只想对兄弟姐妹说一句：自知之明，奋发图强！</P>
<P>下面是其本科论文，大家看后就知俺说的不虚。</P>

Efficient Markets Hypothesis and Behavioral Finance:
A Kuhnian Review *
DU, KAI **
May, 2004
Abstract
The Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) is one of the most controversial
and well‐studied propositions in finance, its continuous tension with
behavioral finance being one of the most heated issues in these days. This
survey reviews the theoretical and empirical evolution from the EMH to
behavioral finance, organizing voluminous literature in parallel of the
structure of scientific revolution proposed by Kuhn (1970). The
pre‐paradigm stage is defined as periods before the emergence of the
clearly articulated EMH, characterized by the conflicts between Technical
Analysis and early versions of the Random Walk Hypothesis, with no
consensus achieved concerning the predictability of the stock prices. This
situation was changed by the rise and dominance of the EMH paradigm,
along with theoretical and empirical support. Later, the “normal science”
stage characterized by the EMH paradigm experienced a crisis caused by
accumulating anomalies. Behavioral finance emerged as a promising
alternative, posing theoretical challenges to the EMH on three levels and
embracing a series of empirical success. To what extent can behavioral
finance replace neoclassical finance as a paradigm? Different even
controversial views are collected as concluding remarks.

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-11-22 16:56:49编辑过]