Key highlights, 2H2009 – 1H2010 Outlook
1. At the mid year, we increased our MSCI EM index target by 21% to 985 by June 2010 (15% upside from current levels) but we
also reduced our equities overweight to 4% from 6%.
2. Our revised base case earnings forecast trajectory is for recovery by end 2010 to 9% below the July 2008 peak. Our Base
Case now contemplates -15% EPS growth in 2009 (vs. -25% before) and + 28% in 2010 (vs. +20% before). On our Base Case
scenario, MSCI EM is currently valued at 13.5x 2010E P/E and 1.8x P/Book.
3. However, upward revisions to MS forecast China GDP growth (10% in 2010) and oil prices (US$85) suggest upside risks to
Base Case.
4. At the country level we have recently upgraded Korea to EW from UW and Poland from EW to OW, while we downgraded
Malaysia to EW from OW. Overweights are China, India, Taiwan, Brazil, Poland and Czech Republic. Underweights are South
Africa, Turkey, Hungary, Thailand and Philippines.
5. At the sector level we have recently upgraded Energy to a major Overweight. We are watching IT closely for when to sell.