Table of Contents
A tale of two halves........................................................................... 3
Valuation and risks............................................................................ 5
Key themes and events for the remainder of 2009......................... 6
Loan growth – Implications, and where to from here? .................. 8
Margin compression – Likely to have bottomed in 1Q09 ............ 14
Fee income – To surprise on the upside? ...................................... 21
Interest rate deregulation – Not a near-term risk......................... 24
Credit cycle – A 2010E theme? ....................................................... 26
Appendix .......................................................................................... 30
ICBC .................................................................................................. 35
China Construction Bank ................................................................ 39
Bank of China................................................................................... 43
Bank of Communications................................................................ 47
China Merchants Bank-H ................................................................ 51
China CITIC Bank ............................................................................. 53