Table of contents
Introduction 5
1. Did China import the large amount of metals for consumption or stockpiling? What is the extent of stockpiling of
metal in China? 6
2. What are the signs of demand strength, if any? 7
3. Does the physical discount in China indicate sustained demand weakness? 8
4. How does the Shanghai/LME arb affect LME price and inventory? 9
5. If the arbitrage has closed, why does China continue to import metals? 9
6. What does the August import tell about the demand in China? 9
7. Why are the owners of the metals in warehouse not selling their metals given the Shanghai/LME arbitrage (arb) has
closed? 10
8. What is the impact of the scrap on refined metal market? 10
9. A lot of the discussion concerns copper mainly, what about aluminum, zinc, and nickel? 11
10. What is the greatest risk to our constructive base metal price forecasts? 11
Disclosures 20