This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly


ReviewThe authors use copious amounts of data . . . to make the compellingcase that any well-informed person should have seen the Great Recessioncoming. The essence of their book is that while financial crises comein different varieties, they are not mysteriously born of underseaearthquakes, but frequently occurring events that can be spotted andeven controlled if politicians and regulators know what to look for.
(Devin Leonard New York Times )

Reinhartand Rogoff have compiled an impressive database, which covers eightcenturies of government debt defaults from around the world. They havealso collected statistics on inflation rates from every country whereinformation is available and on banking crises and internationalcapital flows over the past couple of centuries. This lengthyhistorical study gives what they call a 'panoramic view' of theunending cycle of boom and bust, showing how claims that 'this time isdifferent' are invariably proven wrong. . . . This Time Is Differentdoesn't simply explain what went wrong in our most recent crisis. Thisbook also provides a roadmap of how things are likely to pan out in theyears to come. . . . This Time Is Different is an important addition to the literature of financial history.
(Edward Chancellor Wall Street Journal )

[E]ssential reading . . . both for its originality and for the sobering patterns of financial behaviour it reveals.
(Economist )

Thefour most dangerous words in finance are 'this time is different.'Thanks to this masterpiece by Carmen Reinhart at the University ofMaryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard, no one can doubt this again. .. . The authors have put an immense amount of work into collecting thedata financial institutions needed if they were to have any chance ofmaking quantitative risk management work.
(Martin Wolf Financial Times )

Everyone working on economic policy should own This Time is Different and open it for a bracing blast of sobriety when things seem to be going well.
(Greg Ip Washington Post )

[A] fine new history of financial debacles.
(Daniel Gross Newsweek )

Wouldn'tit be nice to have $1,000 for every time a pundit proclaims an era ofendless prosperity, consigning booms and busts to the dumpster ofhistory? The next time you hear that canard (and you will) pouryourself a single malt and dip into Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S.Rogoff's landmark study, This Time Is Different. Wherever youopen the book, you'll find proof that debt-fueled expansions have endedin financial ruin for hundreds of years. . . . The result is a visualhistory laid out in beguilingly simple graphs and tables, making thebook both definitive--a must read for professors and investors--andaccessible to a wider audience.
(James Pressley Bloomberg News )

CarmenReinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have delivered a powerful and eloquentstatement. . . . Reinhart and Rogoff have done an extraordinary job inputting together statistics on government debt--a task that economichistorians should have done long ago but shied away from because of thedifficulties of defining 'government', which is often complex andmulti-layered.
(Harold James The American Interest )

This is certainly one of the must-read books of the year.
(Arnold Kling Econlog.com )

Rogoff and Reinhart . . . provide an eye-opening look at the cycles of boom and bust and how governments deal with those cycles.
(Arkansas Business )

[A] valuable new book.
(Idaho Statesman )




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