【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月韩国互联网行业研究报告
【作者】：三星证券
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：26
【目录或简介】：

Internet industry to fully recover in 2010: We expect the online ad market, after
growing just 0.7% in 2009, to fully recover in 2010 as the Korean economy steams
ahead, the e-commerce market expands on improved consumer sentiment, and the
online game market strengthens further on launches of blockbuster game. We
estimate that the combined sales and operating profit of Korea’s major Internet
companies—NHN, Daum Communications, NCsoft, CJ Internet, and Neowiz Games—
will rise 16.4% and 24.6%, respectively, in 2010 (vs 1.3% and 38.4% for the Samsung
KSE Universe). Operating profits should grow less in the Internet sector, but we see
this as an unfair comparison, given that robust growth in the Samsung Universe should
stem from base effect. Given Internet firms’ resilience to the business cycle and
forex/interest rate fluctuations, their stable business models, and their ability to
generate steady earnings, we maintain OVERWEIGHT on the Internet industry. NHN
and Neowiz Games are our top picks (see the attached Spot Reports for more details).
 Search ad market to grow sharply: We expect the online ad market to expand
18.3% in 2010 on a rise in corporate advertising budgets and improvement in
consumer sentiment. The display ad market should grow 16.9% on more ad spending
and the popularity of new ad products (such as streaming user-created content and
blog ads), while the search ad market should expand 19% as: 1) an increase in
advertising clients leads to a higher price-per-click (PPC); and 2) an increase in
Internet users leads to more business clicks. We believe the search ad market will also
receive a boost from the renewal of a cost-per-click (CPC) search-ad service contract
between Daum Communications and Overture at end-2009.
 MMORPGs to drive online game market expansion: We estimate that the domestic
online game market will expand at a 22.6% CAGR over 2009-2011 on the back of new
blockbuster games and rising ARPU for existing games. MMORPGs should increase
their market share to 51.1%, but casual games’ share should fall due to sluggish
performances of web-board games. We anticipate more growth opportunities for online
game companies overseas—their most important share-price driver in 2009—given
increases in: 1) Internet penetration rate in China; and 2) the size of the online game
markets (relative to the video game markets) in North America, Europe, and Japan.
Regulatory risks at home and abroad should be limited, but could lead to some
volatility in share performances.