【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月日本保险行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：28
【目录或简介】：
Recovery in financial markets key nearterm
driver; business model main longterm
differentiator
􀀗 Initiate coverage on Sony Financial with
OW(V) and target price of JPY316,000
􀀗 Retain OW(V) on Mitsui Sumitomo
An aging and shrinking population is the key structural
threat to the insurance industry. Therefore, companies
need to improve efficiency to make domestic operations
value-accretive to shareholders.
Consolidation is a soft option, without real synergy
benefits. More significant efficiency gains are expected
from the two recent mergers – of Mitsui Sumitomo, AIOI
and Nissay Dowa, and of Sompo Japan and Nipponkoa.
Geographic diversification will be a critical long-term
value driver. Japanese industrial companies have
successfully moved beyond the domestic market. We believe
insurers are following suit – Tokio Marine has expanded into
North America, while Mitsui is targeting the growth markets
of Asia.
Strong balance sheet is a pre-requisite for expanding
internationally. Less volatility in markets has helped
balance sheets and should drive earnings recovery for the
year ending 31 March 2010.
T&D Holdings, as expected, is raising capital to pay
down debt and strengthen balance sheet. Sompo Japan
will get protection from the stronger Nipponkoa balance
sheet. Financial guarantee remains an issue, and its absence
could deplete capital.
Earnings recovery is not fully market-driven. Companies
are raising guidance on the back of lower catastrophe losses,
thereby better earnings. We reflect this in our forecasts, but
are generally more cautious than both company guidance
and the consensus.
Initiate coverage on Sony Financial with OW(V). Retain
OW(V) rating on Mitsui Sumitomo.