【出版时间及名称】：2010年大宗商品展望
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PPT
【页数】：23
【目录或简介】：

Fundamentals will matter: We expect correlations will
weaken into and through 2010. Fundamentals will matter,
more so than they did in the liquidity-induced rally of
2009. Investors, as a result, should be much more
discriminating in 2010. We want to own commodities with
tight balances.
We want to own commodities that are levered to the EM:
Our economists are forecasting healthy global GDP
growth of 4%. Importantly for the commodity space, they
see EM GDP growth of roughly 6.5% against developed
country growth of 2%.
We expect inflation-risk to rise next year: The weighty
public sector debt burden will pressure some central
banks to continue printing. Commodities have historically
outperformed equities/bonds in inflationary environments.
The USD won’t weaken as much in 2010: A weaker USD
provided a lift to commodities in 2009. While weakness
against EM currencies is likely next year, we doubt that
commodities will find the broad-based support from a
weaker USD as they did in 2009.