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Alexey Voinov
First edition 2008
Copyright © 2008, Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved
Contents
Preface ix
Acknowledgements xv
1 Models and Systems 1
1.1 Model 1
1.2 System 6
1.3 Hierarchy 12
1.4 The modeling process 16
1.5 Model classifications 21
1.6 Systems thinking 25
2 The Art of Modeling 29
2.1 Conceptual model 30
2.2 Modeling software 49
2.3 Model formalization 70
3 Essential Math 79
3.1 Time 81
3.2 Space 99
3.3 Structure 105
3.4 Building blocks 108
4 Model Analysis 111
4.1 Sensitivity analysis 112
4.2 Model calibration 115
4.3 Model testing 129
4.4 Conclusions 134
5 Simple Model, Complex Behavior 139
5.1 Classic predator–prey model 140
5.2 Modifications of the classic model 146
5.3 Trophic chains 150
5.4 Spatial model of a predator–prey system 162
5.5 Conclusions 194
6 Water 197
6.1 Modeling as a hydrology primer 198
6.2 Unit model 223
6.3 Spatial model 229
6.4 Conclusions 244
7 Adding Socio-Economics 249
7.1 Demographics 250
7.2 Dynamics on the market 264
7.3 Corporate rule 272
7.4 Sustainability 278
7.5 The end of cheap oil 287
7.6 The World 296
8 Optimization 307
8.1 Introduction 307
8.2 Resource management 315
8.3 Fishpond 324
8.4 Landscape optimization 338
8.5 Optimality principles 347
9 The Practice of Modeling 355
9.1 Why models don ’ t work 355
9.2 Participatory and adaptive modeling 362
9.3 Open-source, web technologies and decision support 382
9.4 Conclusions 395
To Conclude 401
Index 407