【出版时间及名称】：2010年马来西亚银行业展望
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
We believe Malaysian banks should continue to OUTPERFORM the market.
The key determinants of Malaysian banks’ share price performance are:
■ Positive surprises on credit costs should NPL situation remain benign.
If asset quality continues to remain intact, we expect another round of
earnings upgrades as street adjusts credit cost assumptions.
■ Upside to NIMs. Malaysian banks are positively geared to rising interest
rates. Possible hikes in OPR, combined with easing price competition on
hire-purchase and mortgage loans, could lead to positive NIM surprises.
■ Upside to capital market activities post structural reforms in mid-2009.
The structural reforms have already provided some impetus to capital
market activities, and we expect further follow-through in 2010. Banks with
strong investment banking franchises (e.g., CIMB and AMMB) should be
well positioned to benefit from a further pick-up in capital market activities.
■ Impact of BIS proposals. BIS is proposing that the new proposed
standards be implemented by end-2012, but there is still little clarity on the
revised tier-one requirement and the treatment of current hybrid tier-one
instruments. Based on the new Basel proposals, Maybank (6.9%) and
Public (5.8%) may fall well short of 8% equity tier-one, even after taking
retained earnings for 2010-12E into consideration.
■ All-time high foreign ownership of 35.9%, poses the biggest risk.
■ Focus on higher beta plays. CIMB remains our top pick in Malaysia. We
believe that earnings upside from its Indonesian operations, positive news
flow on a pick-up in capital market activities, possible gains from the sale of
its ‘bad” bank’and potential for capital management could drive up street’s
ROE estimates, leading to a re-rating of the stock.