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格式：PDF
页数：82
出版者：Nomura
目录：GLOBAL

Forecast summary 3
Our view on 2010 in a nutshell 4
Outlook 2010: A tale of two recoveries 5
Fiscal forces 6
GEMaRI: Vulnerability remains 8
QE: Back to basics 10
Key political issues for 2010 11
UNITED STATES
Outlook 2010: The slow road from recession 12
Financial stress 14
Constrained by debt 16
The Fed’s balance sheet 17
Economic outlook: Strong finish to 2009, but cooler growth ahead 18
EURO AREA
Outlook 2010: Headwinds 19
Good work 20
Euro strength may prolong euro-area weakness 22
Liquidity withdrawal roadmap 24
Economic outlook: Constrained recovery 25
UNITED KINGDOM
Outlook 2010: Walking the policy tightrope 26
Q&A on MPC quantitative easing 27
Economic outlook: Better prospects, but risks persist on both sides 29
JAPAN
Outlook 2010: Shift to steady export-led growth in H2 30
Stimulus measures boost consumer spending 31
A policy mix to overcome deflation 33
Capacity and personnel cost adjustments 35
Economic outlook: More aggressive policy in store 36
ASIA
Outlook 2010: China-led paradigm shift 37
China: Dispelling some myths 39
Asian monetary policy: A fear of the exit 40
Asia rebalancing 42
Australia economic outlook: A two-speed recovery 43
China economic outlook: One of the best years in decades 44
Hong Kong economic outlook: Twin engines of China and the HKD peg 45
India economic outlook: Heading back to 8% 46
Indonesia economic outlook: Domestic demand to lead robust growth 47
Malaysia economic outlook: Private sector to lead the recovery 48
Philippines economic outlook: Too much fiscal hype 49
Singapore economic outlook: Tourism to drive momentum 50
South Korea economic outlook: Inflationary recovery 51
Taiwan economic outlook: Cross-straits moves to raise business confidence 52
Thailand economic outlook: Political uncertainty 53
Vietnam economic outlook: An overheated economy 54
EMERGING EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
Outlook 2010: Differentiated growth woes 55
Towards EMU: New convergence anchor 56
Debt (un)sustainability 58
Election fever 60
Russia economic outlook: Animated by oil 61
South Africa economic outlook: Conflicting signals on growth, mandate change 62
Turkey economic outlook: The comeback king 63
Central and Eastern Europe economic outlook: Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland 64
Rest of Emerging Europe economic outlook: Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Romania 65
Middle East economic outlook: Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia 66
LATIN AMERICA
Outlook 2010: An uneven recovery 67
Brazil 2010 election outlook 69
Brazil economic outlook: Growth set to accelerate 71
Mexico economic outlook: A recovery burdened by long-term worries 72
Rest of Latin America economic outlook: Argentina, Chile, Columbia 73
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
Outlook 2010: Beyond peak performance 74
EQUITY MARKET
Outlook 2010: Still bullish 77