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格式：PDF
页数：170
出版者：NOMURA
简介：

Valuation overview 4
The investment boom should last long 5
Actual stimulus has far exceeded the original plan... 5
... and a massive amount remains in the pipeline 6
The majority of the investment is after 2009F 7
Private sector investment is also picking up 8
Be prepared for shortages in 2010F 9
Ripple effect one: a credit boom 10
Rapid growth in bank lending this year 10
Loans outstanding should almost double in three years 11
A historical example of monetary policy being hijacked 11
Box 1: Why RMB7-8tn loan growth is not enough for 2010F 13
Ripple effect two: a consumption boom 15
A surge in household wealth 15
A consumption boom should follow 16
Reduce infrastructure bottlenecks for rural consumption 17
Ripple effect three: asset price inflation 18
Asset reallocation can be massive and drastic 18
Unequal income distribution creates more demand for assets 19
A lethal cocktail for asset price inflation 19
An asset price bubble looks inevitable 20
Look beyond the investment boom 21
Limited additions to overcapacity 21
A catalyst for industrial migration 23
Challenging GDP arithmetic 25
The bursting of the asset price bubble 26
Conclusion 26
Appendix: project pipeline 27
Autos and Auto Parts 32
Weichai Power 36
Banks 43
China Construction Bank-H 50
Cement 54
Anhui Conch Cement 60
Consumer 66
Huabao International Holdings 72
Li Ning 75
Uni-President China Holdings 78
Industrials 81
China Railway Construction 85
China South Locomotive & Rolling Stock Corporation 89
Zhuzhou CSR Times Electric 92
Oil & Gas 95
Petro China 99
Ports 104
Dalian Port 115
Power, Utilities and Renewable Energy 121
Huaneng Power 128
Property 136
China Resources Land 141
KWG Properties 145
Steel 151
Maanshan Iron & Steel 159