【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月中国基建行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：27
【目录或简介】：
China Construction &
Infrastructure
Growth Outlook Still Strong;
Favor Railway Contractors
Infrastructure spending remains healthy; we prefer
railways: After a strong year for China’s infrastructure
investment in 2009 (up 48% YoY), we expect investment
to slow in 2010 but remain healthy at 15% YoY growth.
We expect railways and urban rail transit construction to
sustain better momentum, given low penetration. We
still prefer CRGL (OW, HK$6.02) over CCCC (EW,
HK$7.87), given its dominant position in railways and
urban rail transit, its higher earnings outlook (34%
CAGR in 2009-11e), and greater earnings visibility
(around a two-year backlog).
The MoR’s investment plan supports our view:
Chinese railway infrastructure investment rose 79% YoY
to Rmb600bn, in line with our estimate. The Ministry of
Railways (MoR) has committed to invest no less than
Rmb700bn in railway infrastructure during 2010-12,
which strongly supports our bullish view of continued
growth until 2013 – we expect 14.5% investment CAGR
during 2010/12.
Key Debate – Will the industry’s new contract value
decline in 2010-11? No. We expect continued growth in
2010-11, mainly thanks to railway construction (+15%
and +5% YoY) and urban rail transit construction (+25%
and +20%YoY). We think only highway construction will
decrease slightly (-5% and +0% YoY).
Key Debate – Will industry margins gradually
improve? Yes. We believe CRGL and CRCC’s margins
have bottomed out since 4Q09. More projects are
reaching profit recognition criteria and budget increases
for high-speed railway projects are accelerating.
Key Debate – Is overseas expansion sustainable?
Yes. We are bullish about overseas expansion prospect
for leading Chinese infrastructure players, thanks to
their rising global edge and fast-growing target markets,
given huge infrastructure needs in developing countries.