【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月东南亚干散货海运行业研究报告
【作者】：CIMB证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：25
【目录或简介】：
Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We continue to be bullish on the dry bulk sector for 2010
and update our projections for several positive changes. We are raising our dry bulk
demand growth estimate for 2010 from 4.8% to 5.2% on the back of stronger
Chinese iron ore imports and also higher coal import assumptions. The key potential
re-rating catalyst is stronger bulk freight rates as global GDP growth recovers.
• Our top Outperform calls are TTA, STXPO and Pacific Basin. TTA has 40%
upside to our target and remains the cheapest stock in our universe from a book
perspective. Meanwhile, the recent 15-20% rallies in the prices of STXPO and
Pacific Basin have reduced the upside to about 20-25%. PSL remains an
Outperform but Maybulk is still an Underperform on valuation grounds. Our earnings
forecasts and target prices are unchanged.
• Capping a strong 2009. After plunging to the depths in 4Q08, the Baltic Dry Index
rallied to close at 3,005 points, from just 774 points at the start of 2009. Share
prices also rose significantly, with the best performers being TTA, PSL and Pacific
Basin in that order. These stocks also outperformed their country indices. On the
other hand, STXPO and Maybulk underperformed. China was the main story in the
dry bulk sector last year as its Rmb4tr fiscal stimulus and rush to mop up
attractively-priced imported iron ore and coal mitigated the fall in trade elsewhere.
Also, vessel deliveries fell 40% short of expectations while scrapping doubled.
• We continue to be positive on the 2010 outlook... We expect Chinese GDP
growth to accelerate to 10% this year while robust demand for property,
automobiles and white goods should support 12% growth in Chinese steel
production. European steel demand should resume growth in 2010 mainly due to
restocking while rising electricity production in China and India should result in more
coal imports. We expect increases of 11% for iron ore trade and 3.5% for coal trade
in 2010. Meanwhile, despite a rise in newbuilding deliveries this year, longer tonnemiles
and port congestion could limit the effective fleet growth to just 7.5%, which is
manageable in an environment of rising demand.
• …but 1Q freight rates could weaken before rebounding in 2Q. Although we are
positive for the year as a whole, we think that the BDI could weaken in 1Q because
of high Chinese steel inventories and the incentive to push spot iron ore prices
lower for the contract negotiation. However, a rebound in 2Q is likely as Chinese
construction spending takes off after Chinese New Year, Chinese steel and iron ore
inventories are drawn down and European steel restocking takes off.
• Risks. If China tightens its monetary policy too quickly, commodity demand may be
affected. Meanwhile, higher prices for domestic Chinese iron ore may encourage
more domestic production and reduce the steel industry’s reliance on imported ore.
In our opinion, these risk factors remain moderate and we continue to believe that
the overall outlook for dry bulk freight rates in 2010 is positive.