【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月亚洲石油天然气行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PPT
【页数】：43
【目录或简介】：


Crude Oil – Higher for longer
+ More aggressive than consensus on oil prices.
+ 2H10 to see sharp declines in crude oil inventory, lifting prices.
+ Spare capacity to decline from 6.2 mnbpd to 2.9 mnbpd by 2012.
Refining - Less conviction
– Lackluster refining margins to bottom out in 2010. We prefer to play
integrated companies or petrochemical companies
– Asia now has a petroleum product surplus with more than 1 mnbpd
new capacity already commissioned in India and China
– Shutdowns of 1.8 mn bpd globally seem to have arrested fall in GRM
below cash costs.
Petrochemicals – Improving demand outlook
+ We are relatively less bearish on the sector; we believe that
petrochemical demand has troughed in 2009 and should recover in
2010. However, we do not expect margins to reach normalized levels
over the next two years.
Our 8 key favourites:
E&P: Woodside, Oil Search, Cairn India, CNOOC
Services: China Oilfield Services
Integrated: Reliance Industries, SK Energy
Petrochemicals: Formosa Plastics