【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国建筑行业展望
【作者】：national bank
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：28
【目录或简介】：

Staring into the Abyss
Here’s our latest analysis of major trends shaping
the U.S. commercial construction segment in 2010
and beyond. The outlook is bleak.
• In conjunction with this report, we are lowering
ratings and targets for Canadian companies that
have a substantial exposure to U.S. commercial
construction and related end-markets.
• Investments in commercial structures are a
lagging component of GDP and thus we believe
that other sectors offer more potential at this point.
• The U.S. GDP output gap stands at 5-6%: there is
plenty of excess capacity in most commercial and
industrial asset types, from office buildings to retail
facilities, manufacturing plants and lodging. It will
take several years to close this gap considering the severity of this recession from an
employment perspective.
• Commercial developers and operators face rising vacancies, rising delinquencies, falling
rents, higher borrowing costs, lower revenues and NOI, and near record low capacity
utilization rates. Fundamentals must improve dramatically before construction resumes.
• We therefore clearly favour companies that are more heavily exposed to the Canadian
economy or to rapidly growing nations (Middle East, North Africa, Latin America and Asia), to
cash rich nations that can easily fund infrastructure spending (Australia, Canada, Asia,
Middle East), and to early cyclical sectors such as Ag infrastructure and resources.