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| 文件名: 高盛高华2010中国房产研究报告.pdf | |
| 资料下载链接地址: https://bbs.pinggu.org/a-559261.html | |
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如题,皆为最新的中国房产研究报告!!汇丰香港是2010年1月底的,大摩报告是2010年2月初的,高盛高华则是2010年2月底的!!
价格有小贵,但内容绝对物超所指!!!高盛主要是宏观分析,并分析了几个主要房产股;汇丰则是对30多个房产公司作了详细的分析。报告内容无论对房产投资还是股票投资都十分有价值!!! 大摩经济报告可作为参考一并阅读! 注:是英文的! 附页1:高盛附录: 1-Navigating the tightening cycle; introducing our bear-case valuation 2-Widening our target price discounts to our base-case 2010E NAV 3-We see our bear-case valuation as offering attractive entry levels 4-Balance sheet stress testing in our bear- and worst-case scenarios 5-Market concern on oversupply in 2010 is overdone, in our view 6-Yanlord: Upgrade to Buy on risk/reward after share price correction 7-Fantasia: To Conv. list on scale expansion and appealing valuation 8-SZI: Downgrade to Conv. Sell on market pressure Shenzhen 9-Greentown China: Downgrade to Sell on lower high-end volume 10-Franshion Properties: Fewer headwinds for commercial property 11-Shimao: Removing from our Conviction list, but still Buy 12-Appendix: Earnings, margins, gearing sensitivity analysis 附页2:汇丰简介: 1-Over 120 institutional investors and 38 property companies attended our two- day event, Greater China Property Day 2-HK property developers have a favourable outlook with positive fundamental factors still intact 3-China property developers, in general, maintain that the outlook is stable amid recent noise on policy tightening 附页3:大摩简介: 1-China: Upgrade 2010 Forecasts on Improved External Outlook We have raised our forecasts for China’s GDP growth and inflation in 2010 to 11% (from 10%) and 3.2% (from 2.5%), respectively, as the external outlook will likely be stronger than we previously envisaged. Despite heightened policy uncertainty weighing on market sentiment of late, we believe recent policy action taken by the Chinese authorities should be viewed as precautionary measures to prevent a full-blown overheating and a typical boom-bust cycle. 2-China Rebalancing, Not Overheating The Chinese economy grew 10.7% YoY in real terms in 4Q09, recovering further from 9.1% in 3Q. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, sequential QoQ growth softened a tad further nevertheless, to 2.0% from 2.5% in 3Q and 4.4% in 2Q. Aggressive policy stimulus has successfully decoupled China from the deep recession in the developed markets in the aftermath of the late-2008 financial crisis. The strong economic rebound, which commenced and was primarily policy-driven in 2Q09, has been sustained into 4Q09, and has become more balanced between domestic versus external, public versus private growth drivers. Hong Kong: Monetary Conditions Monitor (Inaugural Issue) 3-Monetary conditions are a key component of Hong Kong’s macro fundamentals. Capital inflows underpinned economic rebound in 2009 but uncertainty abounds in 2010 including potential reversal of capital flows upon policy tightening. We have therefore launched the Hong Kong Monetary Conditions Monitor to help investors to keep track of developments in Hong Kong’s monetary space. |
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