【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月亚洲金融行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：24
【目录或简介】：
Executive summary
Outlook
As the share price overhang driven by uncertainties over capital is expected to continue, we
expect Asian banks to underperform (downgraded from in-line performance) the market until
capital-related uncertainties are removed, despite their strong net profit and pre-provisional
operating profit growth of 28% and 21%, respectively, in 2010.
With high global regulatory risk on capital and rising share-overhang risks, we retain our
preference for better-capitalized Hong Kong, Singapore and Indonesian banks, and upgrade
South Korean banks (overweight from underweight) on strong earnings, low valuation and
limited share-overhang risks. We also upgrade the ratings of Japan and Thai banks to neutral
(from slight underweight and underweight respectively), and downgrade the rating of
Malaysian banks to underweight (from neutral). Certain banks in Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan,
China and the Philippines appear short of capital and are vulnerable to equity-raising risks.
We believe the uncertainties around the numerical targets on minimum global capitaladequacy
ratios and transitional provisions (to be published by the Basel Committee by end-
2010) and the implementation discretions such as buffers, allowances and timetable made by
local regulators are potential overhang and swing factors to share prices of Asian banks. With
11 banks, under our regional survey of 77 banks for reality check (refer to Figure 3), likely to
raise an estimated US$44bn (11% of market capitalization) of capital, the conservative BIS III
provisions on capitals are expected to increase the equity-raising risks in the region.
Based on the BIS III capital framework for Asian banks (including HSBC and Standard
Chartered), we estimate an average 1.4% reduction in tier 1 ratio (or tier 1 capital of
US$145bn) to 8.7% from 10%. Our stress test on potential Asian banks’ capital raising under
BIS III framework suggests that seven out of 77 banks (under Deutsche Bank coverage) will
have tier 1 ratio (BIS III) of 6% or below (refer to Figure 3 and 4). These banks would be
required to raise US$37.8bn of common equities (or 10.2% of their market capitalization), of
which Japanese banks would be required to raise US$29.5bn if a requirement of 6% were
imposed. The capital-raising sensitivity would rise substantially to US$120.3bn for 21 banks
(or 26% of their market capitalization) if the requirement were to increase to 8% (refer to
Figure 2).
At the individual bank level, the negative surprises are likely to be the greatest at Danamon
(down 6.5%), CIMB (down 5.8% of RWA), Metropolitan Bank (down 5.2%), HSB (down
4.1%), OCBC (down 3.6%), Maybank (down 3.3%) and HSBC (down 3.2%) (refer to Figure
17).
In our regional survey of 77 banks for reality check, we found out that 11 banks (of which six
have BIS III tier 1 ratios of above 8%) are either planning to or are likely to raise capital of an
estimated US$44bn, based on guidance given by the management or assessment from our
analysts. Another seven banks will monitor the outcome of the final global regulations to
formulate their capital plans (refer to Figure 3). In contrast, 10 banks that have a BIS tier 1
ratio of below 8% (refer to Figure 4) are unlikely to raise capital based on the assessment of
our country analysts. For example, South Korean financial companies are unlikely to raise
capital as regulators are aware that the companies' CAR would be boosted by about 2% if
IRB approach under the BIS II capital framework is adopted.