【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月日本证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PPT
【页数】：47
【目录或简介】：

Turning cautious; Raising cash; Hiding in the Core 30
Summary and Investment Conclusion
• Global economic recovery has proceeded more strongly and more quickly than
expected
• The strength of the recovery has precipitated monetary tightening in the “Dollar
bloc”, first in Asia but now also in the US
• Stocks tend to do poorly when monetary policy tightens
• Topix has the potential to rise to 1100 by year end IF the BoJ eases decisively
• The BoJ is not easing, so for now we forecast a range-bound market between 800
and 900
• The debate over monetary policy between the BoJ and the Government will
probably take until Q3 to be resolved
• Yen depreciation, driven by US tightening, will nonetheless be supportive: we
forecast $/Y109 and a further 20% depreciation in JPY/KRW by Dec 2010
• Valuation appears slightly better than fair value
• Earnings growth in F2010 will be strong
• Yet our Bond-Stock allocation model prefers Bonds over Stocks
• We recommend overweighting the Core 30: Super-Large Cap is the
laggard area of the market