【出版时间及名称】：JPM-ASIA FIRST TO MARKET-TOP STORIES-1003011
【作者】：jpmorgan
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：33
【目录或简介】：
• Notebook PCs, Taiwan
Stock ideas post our PC pricing/inventory checks
(Alvin Kwok)
We remain negative on notebook ODMs and add
Compal (UW) to AVOID side of our AP Tech
Portfolio. Richtek (OW) has hit our price target, and we
take profit and remove it from the LONG side of our
AP Tech Portfolio
Table 1: Top 4 ODM Q/Q
momentum
1Q10E 2Q10E
Top 4 ODMs -6% 5%
Quanta -5% 17%
Compal 0% -5%
Wistron -12% 10%
Inventec -12% -5%
• Plantations, Malaysia
Feedback from KL Palm Oil Conference
(Simone Yeoh)
Industry experts were generally bullish at the KL palm
oil conference. Our CPO forecast of M$2,450/t for
2010/11 is at the low end of forecasts. Our key stock
picks are Sime and KLK in Malaysia, Wilmar and First
Resources in Singapore.
CPO prices
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
• Property, Thailand
Turning more negative
(Anne Jirajariyavech)
We now have LH as the only OW stock in our universe.
We cut LPN to Neutral following its significant share
price appreciation last year and stay Neutral on QH and
AP. We cut or PTs for all four stocks by 10%-20%.
Thai property 12M forward
P/E
11.2x
5.7x, -2 S.D.
16.1x,+1 S.D.
9.2x, -1 S.D.
12.6x, Mean
19.5x,+2 S.D.
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
• BYD (OW), China
Upgrade to Overweight
(Charles Guo)
We upgrade BYD to OW from N on the belief that
government’s policy on auto and new energy should
drive growth in the near and long term. We revise up
our FY10/11 earnings forecasts by 19%/21% and our
Dec-10 PT to HK$80 (from HK$63).
Share price performance
0
40
80
HK$
Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10
1211.HK share price (HK$
H-SHARE (rebased)
• Perusahaan Gas Negara (OW), Indonesia
PT raised on potential base price rise
(Stevanus Juanda)
PGAS has notified most of its customers that the current
base price could be raised by 10% in April. We raise
our FY10 net income estimate by 5.5% and raise our
Dec-10 PT from Rp4,700 to Rp5,000 as we incorporate
our FY10 price incr