【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国零售行业研究报告
【作者】：高盛
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：19
【目录或简介】：

Consumption up strongly year to date,
March seasonally quieter
Most retailers saw a strong pickup in sales YTD,
underpinned by easy comp and strengthening
demand thanks to broad-based pickup in income
growth. So far, Jan-Feb CNY retail comps
(generally in the mid to high teens) appear to be
tracking higher than GS & consensus’ FY10 fullyear
assumptions. For March, latest channel checks
indicate growth generally is slower by a few
percent, but not unexpected given March is
seasonally a quieter month with launch of full-price
Spring merchandise. Discounting has tapered off
YOY – virtually all retailers are reporting that
inventory levels are now well-controlled and GP
margin is strengthening.
Consumption Drivers: Core drivers are
strong, inflation not yet a big threat to
spending
Key positives: (1) Electricity consumption, +26%
yoy in Jan/Feb, the highest reading since ’06; (2)
export growth (+46% yoy) show strong sequential
recovery. Key negatives: Food CPI is up 6.2% in
February.
Retail Channel Check: Dept store comps up
high teens in CNY, mid teens in March;
regional operators outperform
Our GS China Dept Store SSS Index saw an initial
reading of +17.5% yoy in Jan/Feb and +14.7% in
March. Coastal players (with younger stores)
outperform, Golden Eagle/Intime/Maoye all saw
comps of high teens to mid 20s vs. single digit to
low teens for national players. Maoye has stood out
YTD with the strongest comps (+26% in Jan-Feb,
20%+ in March) among peers so far.
Key outperformance: Generally in the more
cyclical areas: 1) Export dependent coastal areas as
mentioned above; 2) Appliances sales up sharply
by 32% yoy; auto sales still strong at 42% yoy; 3)
Mobile phone sales continued to rebound (+20%
yoy), the highest levels since 2007.
Stock implications
Taking rising inflation and valuation into
consideration, we still see more attractive ideas in
retail sector than in consumer products. Top
picks, all rated Buy: Dongxiang (CL), Belle,
Lifestyle, Intime and Maoye in retail; Mengniu
(CL) and China Agri in staple.