【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球钢铁行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：24
【目录或简介】：
Investment conclusion: We believe competitive
advantage in the coming year will come from a
combination of integration of low-cost raw materials plus
product differentiation. This report identifies the global
winners from across our coverage, which offer
competitive advantage at reasonable value. Our
analysis highlights five large cap liquid names which fit
this criteria and which should be on the list for global
investors: 1) Tata Steel; 2) Severstal, 3) Nippon Steel,
4) JFE Holdings and 5) Evraz.
Our analysis is based on the following reasoning –
Access to low-cost raw materials such as iron ore or
coking coal is forecast to drive a sustainable competitive
advantage in the sector for the next several years from a
more stable low-cost structure being maintained.
Russian steel producers such as Evraz, Mechel and
Severstal appear uniquely advantaged with integration
benefits in many cases to both iron ore and coking coal,
followed closely by their Indian peers. However these
stocks appear disadvantaged in product differentiation.
Product differentiation, on the other hand, such as
very high-value-added steel, like auto sheet, into the
manufacturing sector also drives a sustainable
competitive advantage by maintaining a price advantage
over players with product exposure to the highly
competitive lower-end segments, such as construction
steel. We note that companies such as US players (US
Steel and AK Steel), Thyssen Krupp, Usiminas,
Japanese players Kobe, Nippon and JFE Holdings, all
score high on this count.
Finally, we identify attractive valuations, by
screening our global coverage by six measures on
2011e forecasts to identify where we see positive
earnings surprise and attractive valuations relative to
their market benchmarks – where Indian, Russian and
Japanese players stand out.