【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月亚洲投资文摘
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：70
【目录或简介】：

Sell-off again at the vanguard?
D&G has not seen his Davids tumble together since the financial crisis in 4Q08.
In the past few days, small caps experienced across-the-board sell-offs, with the
ones held by the institutional investors generally getting harder hit. D&G has
begun to get worried when all the quality small caps under his research
coverage, especially the YTD winning names, are severely hammered. It is not
a good sign as historical patterns suggest that investors usually get rid of small
caps, regardless of their quality, ahead of a market slump due to their lower
trading liquidity and higher sensitivity to the changes of economy.
The MSCI China Small-cap Index has quietly underperformed the MSCI China
Index since late April 2010 (chart of the week). We caution, however, that the
magnitude of the small-cap underperformance is not yet large enough and the
duration is not yet long enough to be evidence of stock market turmoil in the
making. The patterns of underperformance are so far similar to the market
correction in January 2010. Nevertheless, relative performance of small caps
will be one of the key metrics that investors should monitor to read the market
sentiment and fund flow.
Europe’s debt crisis has also triggered concerns over the business outlook of
the exporters. In D&G’s view, a decline in the euro has more accounting impact
on the China exporters than their competitiveness. However, after a 15-month
strong business recovery, a slowdown in overseas demand due to some
external factors is not totally impossible, and a risk factor to the exporters, on
which the market has high expectations. Small caps on China domestic growth
at low valuations should be a safer place to hide.

The tales of Davids
China
Xtep – Stepping up to the challenge 16
Hongxing Sports – Falling behind the curve 16
Peak Sports – Taking the next leap 17
KWG Property – High-end market’s risk overstated 17
Indonesia
London Sumatra – 1Q10A earnings supported by higher CPO price 24
Sampoerna Agro – 1Q10A: driven by seasonality 24
Ramayana – 1Q10 results: in-line top line with weak earnings 25
Jasa Marga – 1Q10 earnings reaffirm our positive stance 25
Korea
GS Home Shopping – 1Q10 results in line 29
Hyundai Development – 1Q10 results – improving revenue from in-house project 29
MKIF – Resilient performance, but reduce earnings estimates and target price 30
Daum – Pure play on online ad recovery; target price raised to W90,000 30
Singapore
SMRT – 4Q10 below estimates; stretched on valuations 44
Raffles Education – 3Q10 earnings missed, but expansion plans in place 44
ARA – Steady 1Q10 results; attractive yield and growth play 45
Hi-P – 1Q10 missed, full-year earnings guidance lowered 45
Taiwan
Gemtek – Better 1Q10 helped largely by revaluation gain 51
WPG – Earnings upgrade on strong 1Q10 results and 2Q10 outlook 51
Realtek – Solid 1Q10 results; momentum likely to turn strong again in 3Q10 52
Vanguard – 1Q10 results: near-term outlook rebounding 52
PixArt – Muted growth momentum in 2009E 53
E.Sun Financial – Strong top line, but credit cost remains higher than peers’ 53
Elan – Further improvement in touch track record 54
Richtek – Ambitious market share gainer 54
Silitech – April revenue tracking below guidance and expectations 55
Thailand
TISCO Financial – New report: Stepping up already strong operation 62