【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月中国地产行业研究报告
【作者】：花旗
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：132
【目录或简介】：

China Property
Fear and Hope
 Valuations vs. policy risk. After the recent broad-based sell-off, the China
property sector is now trading at an average discount of 41.2% to Citi’s revised
10E NAVs (vs. historical average of 24%). In terms of earnings, we estimate
sector P/Es of 12x for 2010 and 9x for 2011. But, for the moment, the policy
outlook is more important than valuations for the China property sector.
 Stick with the quality defensive names for now: COLI, Shimao, CRL. The
physical market is likely to react to recent tightening measures earlier than is
generally expected, as was evident during our recent property tours in Bohai
Rim and Southern China. Volume and price declines may accelerate in May
and June. Further policy initiatives in coming months from ministries, local
governments and commercial banks could be surprisingly tough.
 Long-term growth intact, but await property price decline before becoming more
aggressive. While we are long-term buyers of most of the China property
counters, we recognize that some investors would prefer to wait until policy risk
is alleviated. If property prices fall 15-20% from current levels, we would
recommend investors at that time become more aggressive on higher riskreward
names such as Hopson and Poly HK. We are more cautious on
Greentown, R&F, Country Garden and Agile, which are over-exposed in Beijing
and Hangzhou.
 Cutting NAVs and earnings to factor in new price/volume assumptions. On
average, we cut by 12% our 2010E NAVs for the China property stocks and by
18% our 2010 earnings, to factor in these new assumptions: 1). 2010 property
prices in key cities fall 25% from current levels; 2). 2010 volume in key cities
declines by 25% yoy. Most impacted by our revisions are Greentown, R&F,
Agile, Sino Ocean and Glorious; least impacted are COLI, CRL and Shimao.
 Target prices slashed 24% on average, on wider discounts to lower NAVs: Our
TPs for Hopson and SOHO China are cut by only 10% and 15% as our key
assumptions were already highly conservative. COLI’s NAV is cut by 18%,
below the 24% sector average, and in setting our TP we now apply a 10%
discount (from par). For Greentown, Glorious and R&F, we lower our TPs by
around 35% as we slash estimated NAVs and widen our target discounts.

Revisions to Key Assumptions 3
Toughest Tightening Measures Ever 4
Toughest mortgage tightening measures to screen out
investment/speculative demand 4
Physical Market Turning Point Is Unavoidable 6
Citi’s Revisions − More to Earning Forecasts Than to NAVs 14
Investment Thesis- Focus on Quality Names 20
Prevailing valuations imply year end property price down
around 40-45% from the spot price level in key cities (or 15-
20% down from 2010 year beginning level) 20
Is it a good sector to invest in? The growth story is still here 21
Be selective: Stick to high-quality names 22
Which stocks are a must to own? A smaller universe − COLI,
Shimao, CR Land and Poly HK 22
Valuation Looks Attractive 29
Appendix 1- 2010 Land Supply Plan 33
Appendix 2- Reality Check 37
Appendix 3- NAV Disc and PB Charts for China Property
Stocks 43
Appendix 4- Tightening Measures Since Nov 09 on
Property Market 49
Companies 51
Agile Property Holdings (3383.HK) 52
China Overseas Land & Investment (0688.HK) 55
Sell COLI (688 HK) Puts around Valuation Support 57
China Resources Land (1109.HK) 63
Country Garden (2007.HK) 67
Franshion Properties (0817.HK) 71
Glorious Property Holdings (0845.HK) 76
Greentown China Holdings (3900.HK) 81
Guangzhou R&F Properties (2777.HK) 85
Hopson (0754.HK) 90
KWG Prop (1813.HK) 95
Longfor Properties (0960.HK) 99
Poly (Hong Kong) Investments (0119.HK) 104
Shimao Property Holdings (0813.HK) 109
Sino Ocean Land Holdings (3377.HK) 113
SOHO China (0410.HK) 118
Appendix A-1 124