【出版时间及名称】：20100623人民币升值对交运行业各公司盈利的敏感性分析，航空股受益最大
【作者】：高盛 Tom Kim
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：6
【目录或简介】：Assessing the impact of Rmb appreciation
In light of recent discussions on potential Rmb appreciation, we have
provided a sensitivity analysis for the stocks most impacted. As we
expected, Chinese airlines should benefit most from Rmb appreciation,
given their high exposure of over 70% US$ denominated debt. Our models
already assume 5.0% appreciation in the Rmb/year for 2010E-11E. Should
the Rmb appreciate we see the following P&L benefits: (1) increased
propensity for outbound travel by mainlanders; (2) operating cash flow
savings given that Chinese carriers tend to be long Rmb revenue relative to
opex; and (3) translation gains from lower foreign currency debt.
Valuations would likely improve from a higher target fleet value multiple as
higher returns on US$ assets would increase and net debt would be
reduced. At current valuations, China Southern Airlines (CSA) (H) (1055.HK,
Sell) appears to be optimistically pricing in a 7% Rmb appreciation for
2011E, all else equal.