| 所在主题： | |
| 文件名: The Coherent Market Hypothesis.PDF | |
| 资料下载链接地址: https://bbs.pinggu.org/a-703243.html | |
| 附件大小: | |
|
The coherent market hypothesis
T Vaga - Financial Analysts Journal, 1990 – JSTOR Abstract Chaos theory has received considerable attention in the aftermath of the Crash of 1987. However, an alternative non-linear statistical model is far more useful for understanding both the coherent bull market prior to the crash and the subsequent chaotic market fluctuations in October 1987. Unlike chaos theory, which seeks to forecast the path of stock prices in a deterministic sense, the non-linear statistical model, based on "A Theory of Social Imitation," can forecast transitions from trendless (random-walk) markets to periods of coherent, or orderly, price trends and periods of chaotic fluctuations (the panics and crashes associated with abrupt trend reversals). A coherent bull market is characterized by an "inversion" in the historical risk-reward ratio. Over the past 60 years, the stock market has provided an average 10 per cent total yearly return, with a standard deviation of 20 per cent. During coherent bull markets, the return from the stock market averages over 25 per cent, while the standard deviation drops to the neighborhood of 10 per cent. Missing these low-risk opportunities can lead to underperformance, because the rest of the time the market presents more risk than reward, in the form of chaotic markets and periods of true random walk. This article describes the theoretical basis and practical indicators of coherent markets. The results suggest that both technical and fundamental analysis can add real value to the investment decision-making process. |
|
熟悉论坛请点击新手指南
|
|
| 下载说明 | |
|
1、论坛支持迅雷和网际快车等p2p多线程软件下载，请在上面选择下载通道单击右健下载即可。 2、论坛会定期自动批量更新下载地址,所以请不要浪费时间盗链论坛资源,盗链地址会很快失效。 3、本站为非盈利性质的学术交流网站,鼓励和保护原创作品，拒绝未经版权人许可的上传行为。本站如接到版权人发出的合格侵权通知，将积极的采取必要措施；同时，本站也将在技术手段和能力范围内，履行版权保护的注意义务。 (如有侵权，欢迎举报) |
|
京ICP备16021002号-2 京B2-20170662号
京公网安备 11010802022788号
论坛法律顾问：王进律师
知识产权保护声明
免责及隐私声明
